Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 28.781309 31.952609 35.568455 40.052995 45.548676 52.180305 60.979146
2025-06-22 24.086410 28.056760 32.982172 39.736675 49.107458 62.272342 83.556563
2025-06-29 20.763563 24.979352 30.523879 38.713300 51.259813 71.426776 111.329107
2025-07-06 19.337599 23.989116 30.465659 40.792489 58.453940 91.960944 181.089429
2025-07-13 17.601364 22.269015 29.015173 40.351443 61.366950 106.986215 270.060039
2025-07-20 16.404327 21.123053 28.178517 40.636130 65.663112 128.651332 469.700542
2025-07-27 15.447621 20.194504 27.505507 41.004021 70.279406 156.427371 1032.516397
2025-08-03 14.569295 19.277729 26.705258 40.938120 73.941394 186.980290 3668.631659
2025-08-10 13.724590 18.325919 25.717864 40.298212 75.992510 216.053545 NaN
2025-08-17 13.107965 17.673107 25.152032 40.380536 80.049069 265.096450 NaN
2025-08-24 12.510608 16.999016 24.469357 40.083754 82.977785 319.338276 NaN
2025-08-31 11.939107 16.322911 23.712147 39.489967 84.818320 377.074448 NaN
2025-09-07 11.430346 15.721706 23.045592 39.019679 87.073464 458.595240 NaN
2025-09-14 10.991290 15.207690 22.492794 38.725380 89.947060 581.737308 NaN
2025-09-21 10.509450 14.592963 21.701181 37.748036 89.927569 674.962097 NaN
2025-09-28 10.408744 14.614164 22.107193 39.743273 103.134921 1517.776417 NaN
2025-10-05 10.053011 14.175129 21.586554 39.321567 105.785943 2373.568505 NaN
2025-10-12 9.795662 13.891700 21.346812 39.594812 112.147320 6518.748302 NaN
2025-10-19 9.564271 13.640013 21.148151 39.947496 119.453886 365525.941262 NaN
2025-10-26 9.310517 13.335003 20.817355 39.884456 124.637654 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 9.025140 12.960081 20.317423 39.271307 126.235791 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 8.817703 12.715157 20.068767 39.350229 132.622359 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 8.592872 12.428584 19.713722 39.065772 136.526897 NaN NaN